India’s largest opposition party, the Congress, is staring at a crisis yet again. The massive defeat in Maharashtra cannot be overstated. The Congress registered its worst ever performance in the state, winning just 16 seats. It had direct fights with the BJP in 75 seats and won only 10.
In Jharkhand, the party has some consolation in the victory of the alliance with the JMM, but that victory is largely because of Hemant Soren and the JMM. Speaking to Prannoy Roy’s deKoder YouTube channel after the results, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren said the Congress could have done better, when he was asked if it was the weak link in the alliance.
The same story played out in Jammu and Kashmir last month where the Congress managed to win only 6 seats in its alliance with the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC). Rahul Gandhi barely campaigned in J&K and Maharashtra.
Over confidence and complacency
Why on earth wouldn’t you give it all you’ve got especially in states where you or your ally stand a good chance at winning? After doing reasonably well in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress was upbeat and aggressive in taking on the BJP. But over confidence and complacency seem to have set in after that. The shock defeat in Haryana was the first blow. Now Maharashtra.
The issues that the Congress hammered on in the general election: a caste census, the threats to the constitution -- worked at the centre but found no resonance with voters on the ground in the assembly polls. Observers in Maharashtra say they led a lacklustre campaign with no new ideas. It doesn’t help that the Congress is now questioning the results themselves.
Senior leaders of the party called the Maharashtra results “inexplicable” and suggested some sort of manipulation. Frankly that cuts no ice. When you win -- like in Jharkhand or Karnataka -- you don’t question the electronic voting machines or allege conspiracies. If the Congress genuinely believes that EVMs are being rigged, it needs to hit the streets in protest. Not selectively raise the EVM bogey when it suits them.
The Congress needs a structural overhaul. There is something more fundamentally wrong with the way they function and this needs to be addressed. I am not suggesting that the Gandhis should step away from the helm, because it seems quite clear that the party rallies around the family. Priyanka Gandhi’s resounding win in Wayanad underscores that.
Scale of the BJP’s success
And while they need to ask if they have the right advisers and strategists around them, Rahul Gandhi too needs to be questioned on how his political calculations have misfired. In state polls, bread and butter issues matter a lot more to people than overarching ones like a caste census or even attacks on Adani. Rahul Gandhi failed the read the mood.
The BJP has also suffered electoral setbacks in the last decade, including the last Lok Sabha polls where it was reduced to 240 seats, well short of the majority mark. But what makes the BJP stand out is its ability to course correct.
They changed the narrative in Maharashtra completely in a short span of 5 months. Yes, they misuse agencies like the Enforcement Directorate or the ED to go after the opposition, yes they have huge amounts of money at their disposal. But that alone does not explain the scale of the BJP’s success. In fact, the ED’s arrest of Hemant Soren backfired on the BJP in Jharkhand.
The Congress’ poor performance has implications for the larger opposition INDIA bloc as well. The alliance has not held a single meeting after the general elections in June. There is no joint strategy, no coordination. It is a group in name only at the moment.
As yet another parliament session gets underway with many pressing issues on the table, it is advantage BJP.
