UPSIDES: Low-level driving automation already offers valuable support to drivers and road users, enhancing efficiency and safety with navigation, lane-keeping, steering, and braking/acceleration assistance. Advanced vehicle tech and infrastructure make these features desirable. A photo depicts an autonomous bus with a blue logo (front C) signifying autonomous driving.
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HUGE BENEFIT, HUGE CHALLENGE: There’s no question that drivers — humanity as a whole — can immensely benefit from a fully autonomous, self-driving road transport. However, experts say that its promise, where you can simply switch on a vehicle, key in the destination and “sleep on the wheel”, also comes with immense hurdles. This BAIC's Arcfox Alpha S electric vehicle is fitted with technology and equipment produced by China's telecom giant Huawei. The electric sedan features Huawei chips and lidar technology that promise autonomous driving.
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SYSTEM-LEVEL THINKING: Dr. Steven Shladover, a driving automation expert, defines six levels of automation from 0 to 5. Achieving Level 5, where no human intervention is needed for point A to B travel, is a monumental challenge requiring a system-level, global solution. It's the 'Holy Grail' of self-driving technology for road transport.
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6 LEVELS OF DRIVING AUTOMATION: Level 0 & 1 consist of cruise control. Level 2 is longitudinal and lateral control, which still requires driver supervision, super-cruise or autopilot as examples. Level 3 houses systems that are able to fully take on the driving task under some limiting conditions. Level 4 allows systems to take on the driving task without any human intervention and tries to ensure safety if things go wrong.
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WHY LEVEL 5 IS ONLY A “DREAM”: Level 5 is a “future dream,” a perfect self-driving solution that can match human drivers, says Dr Shladover. Level 4, he said, is the closest to what most automated driving teams aim for today. A Level 5 autonomy is more of an ideal. Even Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” is considered a misnomer, as it is considered only at Level 2, with some Level 3-capable features.
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ADVANCES: Dr Shladover is in Dubai to share his insights into this subject and what to expect. He is a subject matter expert who earned his doctorate degree in mechanical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). As a research engineer at UC Berkeley, his primary focus is automation in road transportation systems. In a previous online lecture, he pointed out the need for collaboration between various stakeholders, and a commitment to addressing complex issues in order achieve full driving automation. A person posing with a phone to show the app for the country's first self-driving bus route run by 42 Dot, a start-up owned by South Korea's Hyundai which created the automomous driving technology.
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BASIC TERMS: Dr Shladover has been studying automated driving technologies for five decades. There’s are major misconceptions that need to straightened. The first, is that “Automated Driving Systems (ADS)” technically refer to Levels 3 to 5. On the other hand, “Driving Assistance Systems” would technically only refer to Levels 0 to 2. In any conversation about automated driving, one must consider the so-called Operational Design Domain (ODD) — the full set of conditions in which an ADS is capable of performing the complete Dynamic Driving Task (DDT).
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CHALLENGE: It’s the toughest challenge yet for everyone in the vehicle automation business. Jeong Seong-gyun, head of automomous driving at 42 Dot, the start-up now owned by South Korea's Hyundai which created the technology for the country's first self-driving bus route, posing outside a self-driving bus in Seoul.
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WHY DRIVING AUTOMATION IS TOUGH: Roads are, by nature, unpredictable. No two road conditions are the same, even you pass that same road several times a day. Driving automation expert Dr Steven Shladover believes this road transportation problem is tougher nut to crack, and "greatly exceeds" the complexity of an aircraft autopilot system. The difficulty is due to the need to navigate a complex and dynamic environment. Supercomputers do help, but to account for every unpredictable human behaviour, address safety and liability concerns, manage mapping and infrastructure challenges is like divining the future. Moreover, there’s the matter of the need to tackle ethical dilemmas, navigating regulatory hurdles, and safeguarding against cybersecurity risks.
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GOOD NEWS: On a top-level view of the future of driving automation, Dr Shladover highlighted some good news: (1) the market for driving assist system will continue to grow, further improving road safety; (2) Level 3 automation will have some limited high applications; (3) lots of activity on Level 4 for narrow applications under limited conditions; (4) there will be localised transportation impacts, though deployment will depend on how connectivity (cars “talking” to each other) is combined with automation. The latest BMW iX combines modern luxury with the latest innovations that promises automated driving, operation, connectivity and digital services.
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REALITY VS HYPE: Level 5 won’t happen any time soon, he said. “It’s a dream, rather than a reality,” he stated. There will incremental or “evolutionary” changes, instead of a “revolution” and we will continue to see advances in local package deliveries, long-haul trucks on freeways and some automated ride-hailing (“robotaxies"). Dr Shladover reckons Level 5 may happen, perhaps in the 2070s. On the opposite end is the hype for an uncertain solution. Earlier this month, Larry Ellison claimed at the Oracle CloudWorld 2023: "Coming soon, very soon, in the next 12 months, complete self-driving cars from Tesla."
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A WHOLE NEW WORLD: Level 5 driving automation promises a revolutionary future with ubiquitous electronic robotaxis for all, optimized shared fleets, and seamless urban goods delivery. Achieving this requires major technical breakthroughs in safety, sensing, control, ethics, and cybersecurity. It may take decades to establish the necessary standards and processes, but when achieved, Level 5 automation will usher in a new era of comfort, efficiency, and capacity. Dr. Shladover emphasizes the need for robust solutions to ensure zero "false negatives" and near-zero "false positives" in sensing and control, ultimately transforming the way we move.
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SELF-DRIVING TRANSPORT EVENT: Dubai is currently hosting the Dubai World Congress for Self-Driving Transport, which kicked off September 26, 2023, at the Dubai World Trade Centre. The first-of-its-kind event in the Middle East, this edition is held under the theme: "Empowering Mobility 4.0”. The opening day saw the honouring of the winners of the Dubai World Challenge for Self-Driving Transport.
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SELF-DRIVING BUSES IN FOCUS: This year’s edition of the Dubai self-driving event is focused on "Self-Driving Buses.” It dovetails with efforts to realise Dubai’s Smart Self-Driving Transport Strategy. Dubai aims to transform 25 per cent of mobility journeys in the emirate into smart and driverless journeys by 2030. The event opened with honouring the winners of the Dubai World Challenge for Self-Driving Transport. A self-driving bus undergoing tests in Dubai.
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