Throughout a turbulent 2019, one country that had managed to navigate through regional crises in an inflamed neighbourhood was Jordan. Lodged between Iraq, Syria and Palestine/Israel, the kingdom avoided the contagion that had infected countries across the region; including far away Sudan and Algeria.
Pragmatic approach to domestic and foreign challenges helped keep Jordan stable despite mounting economic pressures. But these pressures are not going away and experts expect 2020 to be an exceptionally difficult year for the kingdom.
In a recent interview with France 24 TV channel, King Abdullah talked about the impact of regional developments but singled out the hosting of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees as a tremendous burden. Jordan has been complaining that donor countries have been failing to deliver on their commitments; putting pressure on an already exhausted state treasury.
Jordan will be watching the outcome of the Israeli election with great concern. A victory for Netanyahu and his Far Right allies would almost certainly lead to fulfilling an election pledge of annexation. Last year the king warned of “severe consequences” if Netanyahu goes ahead with the annexation.
Political challenge
Aside from the economic challenges that present themselves in a modest annual GDP growth rate of about 2 per cent and an alarming unemployment rate of more than 19 per cent in addition to more than $30 billion (Dh110 billion) in national debt, it is the Israel-Palestine conflict that now presents the biggest political challenge for Jordan in 2020.
King Abdullah admitted that bilateral ties between Jordan and Israel, 25 years after signing a peace treaty, were at a 2-year pause and that the “West Bank is an issue that has tremendous negativity towards the Israeli-Jordanian relationship”. The threat of Israeli annexation of the West Bank is seen as an existential threat to Jordan, which in effect buries the two-state solution and opens the scene to a number of worrying scenarios.
Election politics
In recent weeks, Israel’s right-wing establishment has been deflating the value of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty and some had suggested that once the annexation takes place the administrative rights of millions of Palestinians would be taken care by Jordan — something that Amman will never accept. Short of undermining the monarchy, and even then, Jordanians, as well as Palestinians, will never accept that their country can become an alternative homeland for the Palestinians.
King Abdullah had described rhetoric coming from Israel as “election politics, which is creating tremendous concern to all of us in the region, because they’re moving away often to a direction that is completely uncharted territory for all of us.” But the problem for Jordan today is that the Trump administration appears to be implementing an Israeli Far Right playbook.
King Abdullah did not submit to President Trump’s unilateral decisions on Jerusalem and the relocation of the US embassy from Tel Aviv. Despite the sensitivity of Jordan-US ties — the latter being the main financial and military supporter of the kingdom — the king was particularly vocal in his criticism of the White House position on Jerusalem and the attempt to defund UNRWA. Jordan is host to almost 2 million Palestine refugees and Amman has played a key role in rallying international support for the UN agency.
In addition, the king has been the front-runner among Arab leaders in defending the two-state solution in international forums at a time when the United States was clearly moving away from decades-old policies on illegal Israeli colonies.
Trump’s deal of the century
Now there are reports that President Trump may unveil the political side of his much-touted deal of the century even before the upcoming Israeli elections in March. That would be seen as a major push to improve disgraced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political fortunes.
Jordan will be watching the outcome of the Israeli election with great concern. A victory for Netanyahu and his Far Right allies would almost certainly lead to fulfilling an election pledge of annexation. Last year the king warned of “severe consequences” if Netanyahu goes ahead with the annexation.
Annexation bid
But what can Jordan do? Its options are few and difficult. It not only risks ending the peace treaty with a powerful and menacing neighbour, but it also faces the possibility of US sanctions if it does. No country in the region, with the exception of the Palestinian Authority (PA), stands to lose as much as Jordan if Trump’s deal backs Netanyahu’s annexation bid.
Public opinion in Jordan is already charged against Israel. A controversial deal to supply Jordan with Israeli natural gas over a decade is facing rejection by a growing number of Jordanians as well as lawmakers. The Lower House of parliament is getting ready to debate a bill next week to ban the import of Israeli gas. The government is under pressure and is facing a motion of no confidence.
Last year the king was hailed by his people for ending a 25-year lease of Jordanian lands to Israel. He also called on the government to review the gas treaty with Israel. But in his recent interview, the king stressed that peace is a strategic choice for Jordan.
And trying to be optimistic, he said he will look at the glass half-full where Trump’s deal is concerned. Despite reserved optimism, the king and his citizens know that the coming few months will be crucial for the kingdom.
— Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
