The national impact of the results in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir cannot be overstated enough in India. After the BJP’s below par Lok Sabha performance earlier this year where they fell short of a majority and stopped at 240 seats, the huge victory in Haryana in particular has come as a big boost for the saffron party.
An over confident Congress was sure that Haryana was in the bag and a victory would only have strengthened the narrative that the BJP was on the back foot. This was crucial for the opposition INDIA bloc, to keep up their momentum from the general election and show they were on the upswing.
However, the Congress managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in Haryana and its performance in Jammu and Kashmir, where it is in alliance with the National Conference, was dismal winning just 6 seats and only one from Jammu, where the BJP continues to dominate.
Congress vs BJP
In J&K, the Congress has piggybacked on the NC’s stunning performance. Haryana though is a particularly big wound. The Congress had everything in its favour.
Huge anti incumbency, anger over the farmer agitation, the Agniveer scheme, the controversy over the sexual harassment of wrestlers and a diminishing footprint of smaller parties like the JJP and INLD. It made the contest a direct one between the Congress and the BJP.
There are many mistakes the Congress made not least of which was over confidence that the state was an easy win. Rahul Gandhi did not campaign as much as he could have and should have and buzzed off to the United States for over a week. In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP pulled out all the stops, sending their top leaders to camp in Jammu.
Home Minister Amit Shah did 5 rallies in just one day. Rahul Gandhi did 5 rallies in the entire campaign. The BJP was in deep trouble in Jammu two months ago. A lacklustre campaign by the Congress, poor candidate selection lead to the Congress disaster in Jammu. They had double the number of seats in J&K in 2014.
Weakest link in a direct fight
Infighting and factionalism in Haryana also cost the Congress. Kumari Selja was in a sulk for days and did not step out to campaign till much later. They Congress badly needed a win in Haryana to dispel the notion that it was weak in north India.
Apart from Himachal, it has ceded the entire Hindi heartland of the North to the BJP. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s focus on a caste census, the issue fell flat in the state polls. All of this will have a major impact on the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand polls, which will happen in the next month.
In Maharashtra the Congress will be on the back foot when it comes to seat sharing with allies like the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP. The Haryana win has given the BJP cadre a huge morale boost.
There are many lessons from this. One, that the opposition should not over read the Lok Sabha verdict and that the Congress in particular needs to get out of its complacency and over confidence. Two, strategic alliances remain important for the Congress which is still the weakest link in a direct fight with the BJP.
One of the smartest things the party did during the Lok Sabha poll was cede it space to allies. Ultimately, hubris is the undoing of all political parties. Including the BJP. The opposition will have to work even harder for the next round of elections.
