Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is in trouble. Big trouble. With opinion polls predicting not just a defeat but an overwhelming defeat for his Conservative party in the next general election, voices within the Tory party have been calling for his removal.
The Prime Minister has spent the better part of last week fending off coup plots and rumours. But those rumours are only getting louder as local elections due on May 2 approach and many believe Sunak could be dumped afterwards as the Tories prepare for the big battle. But will replacing Sunak really help?
The very thought of the Tories replacing yet another Prime Minister will probably do them more harm than good. That would mean as many as 4 Prime Ministers in a single Parliament. They will come off looking even more divided, confused and in a state of chaos.
Of course, the latest opinion polls haven’t helped and set off even more alarm bells within the Conservative Party. A Deltapoll survey from March 15 to 18, shows that support for the Conservatives has slumped by four points in a week to just 23%.
Labour are at 46%. Another worry for the Tories is that backing for the ultra right wing Reform UK party has also increased to put them on 12%. Another poll done by Redfield & Wilton Strategies shows the party falling to 21%, only 7 points behind Reform UK. Labour are at 47% in this poll.
Ahead of these latest polls, Sunak was already facing pressure from within his party for suspending MP Lee Anderson for his Islamophobic attack on London Mayor Sadiq Khan. Anderson went and joined the Reform UK party.
Sunak’s handling of leading Tory donor, Frank Hester, was seen as a big disaster. The Prime Minister initially hesitated in calling out Hester’s racist remarks against Dianne Abbot, the UK’s first female black MP.
That is because Hester has donated over 15 million GBP to the Conservatives. When the outrage grew, Number 10 had to call out the remarks as “racist”. But the writing has been on the wall for the Tories for several months now. There have been a string of defeats in bypolls; many senior MPs have announced their exit from Parliament.
Titanic heading for iceberg
Meanwhile, the UK economy is in recession, the cost of living crisis has really hurt people over the last couple of years while the spring budget did not create the waves the Prime Minister hoped it would. 13 years in power have not gone well for the Conservatives. Many of the problems the Tories face today are a crisis of their own making.
From Boris Johnson’s controversial exit post Covid, the party has been on a suicide mission since with bitter infighting and intrigue within the ranks dominating headlines. Sunak has tried everything from doubling down on the controversial Rwanda policy for immigrants to cutting back on climate goals all in an effort to please the Conservative base. Even that is not helping.
Number 10 has been hoping that the latest inflation numbers will give Sunak a bit of a boost — at 3.4% it is the lowest level in 2 years — but cost of living is still rising. The Chancellor insists this shows that the “government’s plan is working” and “sets the scene for better economic conditions”.
All eyes are now on the May 2 local elections, where the Tories are not expected to do well at all. This is what may see the next round of bloodletting in the party but no last minute change will swing it for the Tories.
They are indeed heading for the iceberg.
