The results of the recent European elections did not surprise observers and pollsters, who had predicted a spike in voters’ support for the populist right parties. These parties have won a fourth of the European Parliament’s seats.
In Germany, the Alternative For Deutschland (AfD) claimed second place in the elections, while in France, the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) made significant gains, forcing President Emmanuel Macron to call for snap parliamentary elections at the end of this month.
But what was surprising was that a substantial percentage of young voters, including first-time voters, supported far-right populist parties, in contrast to the 2019 elections when a majority of youth backed Green parties, underlying their concern for global challenges such as climate change.
In France, the National Rally (RN) garnered about 25 per cent of the votes among 18-24-year-olds, according to pollster Ipsos, up ten percentage points. In Poland, however, support for the far-right Confederation among 18-29-year-old voters increased from 18.5 per cent to 30.1 per cent, making them the leading choice for that demographic, according to Reuters.
Similar trends were noted in Finland, Portugal, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium. No one anticipated this, and everyone is trying to understand the meaning behind this shift.
Youth vote is key
One must remember that Europe has an ageing population, and in some countries, like Italy, the population is declining. Italy’s population of 59 million could fall by almost 1 million by 2030. The effects of the crisis are already being felt, with the ageing of the population causing problems for Italy’s health care and pension systems, according to government statistics. Youth vote will only become more critical in the coming years and will chart the continent’s political, economic, and social trends.
One significant note about the surprising shift has to do with events that took place since 2019: Covid-19 and the Ukraine war are two events that have contributed to youth apprehension about the future. One study found that European youth under 30 are now more worried about their economic well-being, just like their parents. Inflation, unemployment, and rising cost of living have become central to young Europeans.
According to the 2024 World Happiness Report, young people are unhappier than older generations. The rising cost of living is the top concern for 93 per cent of Europeans, followed by the threat of poverty and social exclusion at 82 per cent. According to the report, happiness has fallen so sharply for the young that they are now less happy than the old in North America.
Social and economic justice
So why turn to populist far-right parties and not to the left, whose platform underlines social and economic justice? Among the reasons are messaging and track record. Populist parties have turned to new media, such as TikTok and Instagram, to reach the youth. Former President Donald Trump joined TikTok earlier this month at a time when Republican lawmakers tried to pass a bill banning the China platform in the United States.
A similar trend could occur in the United States ahead of the November elections. President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 elections was driven by young voters. Now he’s losing the Democratic youth over messaging, age, and the war on Gaza.
Interestingly, it is not immigration and the preservation of the traditional way of life driving young voters to the far right; instead, it is economic uncertainty. In this case, the far right, which has yet to be tested in Western Europe, is becoming more appealing.
Economic freedom, isolationism in foreign policy, and cultural identity are all factors driving more young voters to embrace the far right. One could also argue that the trend is a protest vote against the status quo, where right-of-centre parties have failed to deliver on their promise of economic prosperity, job security, and preservation of a European way of life.
Decision-makers everywhere should take note of this aspect of the European elections. Youth’s voice has to be heard in the Arab region also as it faces a combination of challenges — from climate change to regional wars and from the rise of non-state actors to the collapse of the national state.
Middle East has a young population overall, and aside from the Gulf States, the rest of the region is grappling with youth unemployment, drugs, radicalisation, and youth immigration, or brain drain.
It is crucial that think tanks and institutions to study the undercurrents and other elements that form young people’s opinions, aspirations, and perceptions of the world they live in. That should be a priority for governments and policymakers. The leaning of European and American youth towards the far right is worth studying.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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