In a clear mandate in India, the National Conference in alliance with the Congress has swept to power in Jammu and Kashmir — an election that took place after a decade. More importantly, the polls were the first after the former state was stripped of its special status in August 2019 and demoted to a Union Territory. Defying predictions of a hung assembly, the INDIA bloc won 49 seats in the 90-seat constitutionally reformed assembly.
NC candidates were victorious in 42 out of the 47 seats in the valley whereas, with only 6 successful contestants, Congress will have to contend as the junior alliance partner. The win allows the incoming government to negate one key disadvantage. In a controversial move, the centre-appointed Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha will appoint five nominees with all legislative powers to the assembly. In a close result, they would be kingmakers.
Unlike in Haryana, where the BJP’s stupendous showing has made exit polls an existential question, the party did not live up to its own hype here. Predictably, most of its wins in the 29 seats are from the Hindu-dominated Jammu region, where 6 seats were added by the Delimitation Commission in 2022 — in contrast, Kashmir Valley got an additional single seat.
The results also nullify the role of smaller parties and independents including 28 separatists and former militants who contested — and were allowed to stand — these elections. Ahead of polling a dominant narrative doing the rounds was that some were BJP proxies.
Among those seeking elections were ten candidates backed by the Jamaat-e-Islami, a banned outfit and, aligning his party the Awami Ittehad Party with the Jamaat was terror funding accused Engineer Rashid.
He won the Parliament elections from jail but bafflingly was granted bail by a court for twenty days to campaign in these elections, a move that gave credence to rumours that he was part of a bigger game.
Bottom half of the table
In the end, they all failed to cut into the vote bank of the National Conference. On the contrary, voters consolidated behind one party, leaving the valley’s other traditional political party PDP — which formed an alliance with the BJP in the last elections in 2014 — at the bottom half of the table.
All eyes will now be on the Lieutenant Governor (LG). The centre’s representative in the capital has reduced AAP’s elected government to a toothless tiger and is embroiled in confrontations even over ordinary governance. But the similarities between the two union territories end here.
Kashmir’s security significance and political landscape apart, the INDIA alliance will be in unchartered territory of ruling J&K after its downgrade from a state and carved into the UTs of Ladakh and, Jammu and Kashmir. Any hint of instability however will be contrary to everything the BJP espouses and will defeat the reasons it gave for the abrogation of Article 370.
PM Modi promised restoration of statehood after the elections. Will he walk the talk now that the BJP has not performed as per the party’s promise? Incidentally, the outcome for the BJP, which sought legitimacy through these polls, has been no better or worse than last time. The valley, though, has spoken up in a unanimous voice.
Under the Chinar trees
The fair and free elections with a large turnout point to the willing engagement of the voters, results though indicate that the BJP’s claim of ‘Naya Kashmir’ has not filtered down to all. The removal of the special status came with promises of employment and development. Instead, the new government — with Omar Abdullah likely to be the chief minister — has to hit the ground running. Its key challenge will be to maintain a working relationship with the centre.
Alongside, issues such as investment in the valley, drugs and representation from Jammu are on par with those of reconciliation for a people who after August 2019 were subjected to a long uncertain period during which they were deprived of basic rights and freedom.
Tourism may have seen an uptick but peel the layers in the valley and you will notice what I did last year. Despite claims to the contrary, not all unease has disappeared in the heady rush of tourists on the Dal Lake. The expressionless soldier stares back every few hundred meters, sometimes a fidgety local crosses the proverbial barbed wire and glares back only to look away. This year has also seen a surge in attacks.
At long last, the people have spoken. After an extended interlude, the citizens of J&K have their representation, their wholehearted participation in the electoral process also comes with trust. The LG was not a candidate in the election and if he stalls the functioning of the government and plays with the people’s mandate, then it will beg the question about the point of the exercise.
Kashmiris have faced many challenges. Under the Chinar trees, now is a time for keeping promises.
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